Cut at the knees

Cut+at+the+knees

Napoleon had Waterloo.

Within these borders, Custer had his last stand at the Little Big Horn. Carter is remembered for the Iranian Hostage Crisis. Bush left much of his legacy in Iraq.

Each of these disasters cost their doer dearly, mistakes that will forever be associated with their respective names.

And now, some believe that President Obama is on the brink of joining that list, with his potential gaffe bearing his namesake.

Signed into law in 2010, ‘Obamacare’, is the most drastic and significant change to the American healthcare system since Medicaid and Medicare in the sixties. Officially billed as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, it brings about sweeping changes, most notably requiring insurance companies to cover all applicants with a set of minimum standards regardless of preexisting conditions.

Disastrous debut

The implementing of the program has been very rocky. To begin, the official website marketplace, www.healthcare.gov, has been a complete disaster. While the glitches have made Obamacare an easy target for late-night jokes and Republican attacks, it has greatly hurt the initial rollout.

Nicole Asmussen, an assistant professor in the Political Science department at Oakland University, explained that the website issues caused the whole program to start on the wrong foot.

“October and November was definitely not a good period for the Obama presidency,” Asmussen said. “With the site problems, the startup was just a mess, but we will have to see how it plays out in the long run. What it really comes down to is the fact that if young people do not sign up, premiums will go up.”

This uncovers a problematic trend for Obamacare. Amidst all the layers – the website, a government shutdown, confusing prices, and more – what lies at the heart of it all, is the young blood needed to keep that heart pumping.

A looming debacle

According to a recent Time Magazine article, in order for Obamacare to work, the program needs two ‘younger’ sign-ups for every three ‘older’ people enrolled.

This is due to simple math. An AP story from last month explains that a typical person in their sixties uses six dollars in health care services for every single dollar utilized by someone in their twenties.

“Young people are essentially subsidizing the cost of older people,” Asmussen said. The people that really need health services are going to make a huge effort to get it, but those that don’t need it simply aren’t going to. This can make for a bad cycle. The more older people that sign up, the more the costs will be. Then the following year, premiums will be higher in order to make up for the cost. Then younger people will see this and be even more scared to sign up.”

“So this is a really, really big problem.”

Politico recently called this important group, ‘young invincibles’ and revealed that the Obama administration hopes to have seven million Americans signed up for the program by the end of March – 2.7 million of them falling between the ages of 18 to 35.

For this piece, a survey was conducted of exactly 200 OU students. Ages, majors, sex, and class standing greatly varied among the group, but this potential trend of an Achilles heel emerged.

Of the 200 asked, only nine have actually signed up for health insurance that complies with the new Obamacare regulations.

Sticking with Mom and Dad

An overwhelming majority fell in line with Jeff Sharafinski. Sharafinski, a 23-year-old senior studying management information systems, explained why he has not signed up for a new plan.

“It is really easy to stay on my parent’s plan,” Sharafinski said. “Why even try to get on that buggy website?”

Within the sweeping changes brought on by the Affordable Care Act, one potential landmine is the provision that Obama also signed into law. Shawn Dhanak, the communications lead for Get Covered America, a non-partisan, non-profit campaign designed to raise awareness for the new healthcare options being offered, explains.

“If they want, young people are now able to stay on their parent’s plan until the age of 26,” Dhanak said. “Before the Affordable Care Act, this used to be entirely up to the insurance industry.”

While this is a blessing for many, this still keeps many young people out of the ‘pool’ of all Obamacare users.

Nikki Louks, a 20-year-old criminal justice major tried to jump in that pool, but once she found out about the provision, she stayed with the plan of her parents.

“I tried to sign up, but the website directed me to other insurance sites and there was nothing I could afford,” Louks said. “It was so frustrating that I gave up. But now since I can join my parents’ insurance I am very happy. Having a preexisting condition has made getting any form of insurance next to impossible without paying an arm or a leg, so I am relieved.”

Sharafinski and Louks are not freeloaders by any means. Rather, they are simply utilizing an offer that Obama himself created, and it could possibly cut the whole program at its knees.

“Many of the students I have talked to say they will just stay on their parent’s plan for awhile,” said Amanda Lynch, assistant professor in the Health Sciences department at Oakland. “Maybe the other young people are simply procrastinating, just like their papers.”

Paying the piper

Procrastination is another worry for the system, and several students surveyed explained that they were simply waiting until the March deadline. Other students however, are simply rejecting the idea of signing up altogether.

“I would never trust Obama, he’s a liar and a crook,” said Austin Puckett, a 20-year-old studying broadcasting. “I stay on my parent’s plan anyway, but if I couldn’t do that, I would just pay the $100 fine and go on with my life without siding with Obama.”

Puckett is not alone, young people around the country are simply willing to pay a fine instead of signing up in the program.

“The first year the penalty for not signing up is only $95,” Asmussen said. “You basically pay it when you file your income taxes, but that will increase over time.”

According to Forbes, that $95 penalty will only apply in 2014 to those who are unmarried with no dependents and an income less than $19,500. While those parameters apply to many young people such as Puckett, the fines will only continue to rise with time.

A true blessing

While the average age is 51 for those who have actually signed up for Obamacare within the state of Michigan, the simple survey that fueled this piece uncovered a few success stories.

A recent Oakland graduate, Damien Dennis, 25, is currently working as a reporter in St. Joseph, Michigan.

“I went through the process and actually got in the very first day the website launched,” Dennis said. “However, when I got my new job, they covered me with their insurance, so I didn’t need to take it. But, my dad hasn’t had insurance since he left Chrysler in 2009. He’s had back problems that he cannot get taken care of. He recently got an Obamacare plan he can afford and now can get treatment which is huge since he is unemployed and going to college full-time.”

Another Golden Grizzly praised the new legislation, literally calling it life changing. This current student is a 22-year-old female, currently in her junior year at OU. She shared her story for this article, but asked to remain anonymous.

“I will say that is honestly a blessing,” she said. “I had ovarian cancer at 16. It is embarrassing to talk about, and unfortunately it makes any insurance that I have tried to get become very expensive. Now, I can’t be judged for something that I had no control over.”

Dhanak hears cases like this all the time, and points to them as a reason why he calls Obamacare historic.

“This is not about politics, this is the law of the land now,” Dhanak said. “Now, folks for the first time in Michigan’s history  people have an unprecedented opportunity to receive quality health insurance without worrying about being denied due to a preexisting condition.”

Still, as this new system can certainly help people, it clearly still has many hurdles. According to a Washington Post article from earlier this month, less than one-third of people ages to 18 to 29 plan on enrolling in Obamacare.

“Will this cut the program at its knees? It certainly could,” said Professor David Dulio, who chairs the Department of Political Science at Oakland. “Some have talked about the ‘death spiral’ for Obamacare where if enough ‘young and healthies’ don’t sign up the program would not work out financially. I think the White House would do everything in its power to salvage the program. It’s too early to tell what options would be on the table for them, but I think there are some and I can’t imagine they aren’t looking ahead to plan for that constituency…if they aren’t, they aren’t doing their job.

Ultimately, while it slightly strange to think, the ultimate success or fail of this program – and possibly the legacy of a truly historic presidency – could be in the hands of the Y Generation.