The NFL season has just begun, yet fans and analysts have already begun crowning their top teams.
Right now, there are probably fifteen fan bases thinking they’re on their way to winning it all.
Among these, only one can win the Super Bowl. Only two can play in it. Heck, only four will even taste the conference championship round. The rest will leave their fans disappointed.
So — who is just acting tough before reaching their inevitable demise? Who has a real shot?
The Pretenders
My pretenders talk the talk, but I expect to see them struggle to walk the walk late in the season. To be considered a pretender, teams must actually be regarded as a legitimate threat to win it all.
To the Colts, Vikings and Seahawks: Well done! You’ve looked great! That said, I am not scared of you, nor do I expect anyone else to be.
The Green Bay Packers are off to a 2-1 start, including dominant wins over the Lions and Commanders and a disappointing loss to the previously winless Cleveland Browns.
The Packers boast what looks to me like the best defense in the NFL. The unit is led by elite edge rusher Micah Parsons, top-shelf safety Xavier McKinney and second-year linebacker Edgerrin Cooper — who I expect to be widely-regarded as one of the premier backers in the league by the end of the season.
Their offense possesses an armory of weapons. While they lack a true primary receiving option, the Packers have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Josh Jacobs and more than a handful of viable targets. When healthy, the offensive line is reliable, too.
Frankly, the Packers are one of the most well-constructed teams in the NFL. The issue? Jordan Love.
Love is one of the more exciting and talented quarterbacks in the league. Championships aren’t rewarded for raw talent and excitement, though. Despite flashes of brilliance, Love’s poor decision making and over-confidence in his arm will need much improvement before the Packers can take a stab at the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been the gold standard in the NFL for nearly a decade. After an 0-2 start — albeit to two great teams — the dynasty seems to be on thin ice, despite a bounce-back win over the less-than-intimidating New York Giants.
Yes, the team still has Patrick Mahomes and whatever supposed magic he brings with him. However, it seems the bones of the team — the run game and defense — are growing brittle.
Their running backs have struggled to generate consistent yardage, especially in big moments, and the offensive line hasn’t created reliable lanes. Much of their rushing production has come from Mahomes himself — a result of improvisation, not a functional ground game.
Defensively, the Chiefs are looking vulnerable. On paper, the defense is still elite, but they’ve struggled to step up and contain key drives against respectable offenses.
The Chiefs’ 2024 ability to win close games is not sustainable, as we’ve already seen this season. They’ll have to learn to play like winners in the first 50-something minutes of a game if they expect to continue coming out as winners after 60.
The Washington Commanders are coming off a thrilling 2024 season NFC conference championship appearance.
Teams led by young superstars — like Washington and their sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels — are often easy to fall in love with, especially when they can win 41-24 with the young star sidelined.
Jayden Daniels is electrifying, but with inconsistent protection from the offensive line and a shaky running game, he could have far too much on his shoulders.
Commanders’ head coach Dan Quinn is a strong defensive mind, but I am incredibly skeptical that he has the roster pieces to execute his scheme the way he intends to.
It’s also worth mentioning that, despite their young quarterback, the Commanders are the oldest roster in the NFL by average player age. This leaves me wondering how wear and tear will weigh on them as the long season goes on.
The Contenders
Inversely to the pretenders, my contenders are teams that I believe to be legit, even though they aren’t the heavy favorites.
So, to the Bills, Ravens and Eagles: Yes, you are good at football. Good for you. But this is not your place.
The Los Angeles Rams are pretty much a completely different team than the one that won the Super Bowl in 2022. Two key pieces remain — QB Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay.
The duo of experienced offensive masterminds is enough in itself to produce a worthwhile offense — yet they have the luxury of leaning on a strong running game that features Kyren Williams running behind an increasingly stable offensive line. For good measure, Stafford can air it out to two elite wide receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The offense and coaching are productive and proven. The defense is what excites me, though.
The defensive line is very young — and very good. Jared Verse is poised to become a superstar off the edge, and Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske make up one of my favorite defensive interior duos in the league.
The secondary has some question marks, but I believe that the pressure will be strong enough to make their jobs easy — and cornerback Cobie Durant is on his way to becoming a star in 2025.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to have intercepted the magic that the Chiefs flaunted last year. Three weeks in, the Bucs are 3-0, winning their matchups by three, one and two points respectively.
Baker Mayfeild has his swagger back. He’s been solid throughout the games, but he’s looked like a superhero when he’s needed to.
The Bucs offense has looked somewhat pedestrian so far, despite the emergence of rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka — do not expect this to continue.
The Bucs are currently without their elite offensive tackle duo of Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke, as well as trusted veteran receiver Chris Godwin. Their returns cannot be understated. When healthy, this offense will be dangerous.
The defense is well-coached and filled with talent at every level. Defensive tackle Vita Vea is maybe the best run stopper in the league, linebacker Lavonte David is one of the premier veteran leaders you’ll ever see, and Antoine Winfield Jr. recently spent five months as the highest paid defensive back in the league — for good reason.
The Detroit Lions are hard-nosed and old school, like most Super Bowl winning teams have been.
I am in love with the prospect of what this offensive line can be. Tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker are one of the best duos in the NFL. The concerns thus far have been on the interior, but I truly expect the unit to grow more and more cohesive with each week. Young guards Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge are absolute maulers. When they become more confident in their responsibilities, they will help to create holes that owner Sheila Ford-Hamp could run through.
If the Lions O-line continues to grow in communication, their offense will be terrifying. Then — and only then — QB Jared Goff will be able to conduct an offensive masterpiece with contributions from all angles of one of the best skill groups in the NFL.
The Lions offense has been dependable for some time now, but the defense will have to keep pace for them to truly earn their keep as a contender. The unit is full of stars — Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph lead the list — but they will need to execute at a higher level, which I expect them to chip away at week by week.
The Lions start the season in a bit of a hole, because of all of their offseason changes. If the complications of those transitions can be ironed out, the Lions roster is as talented as any in the league, and their chances of taking home their first ever Lombardi Trophy will reflect that.
In a league defined by parity and unpredictability, separating the real from the fraudulent is never easy. But as the season unfolds, talent, coaching and resilience will rise to the surface.
Some teams will prove the hype was real — others will remind us that potential means nothing without execution.
So, strap in. This year’s NFL rollercoaster is just getting started.
