Multiple French military reports have been leaked to the French investigative magazine Marianne. The documents describe an intensely negative situation for Ukrainian forces in their war with the Russians, adding important context to the political choices of Western nations, Putin’s posturing and the state of the war in Ukraine.
In their article about the documents, Marianne disclosed that three reports had been leaked. Each leaked document portrayed a dismal image for the Ukrainians and Western allies.
According to Marianne, the first of the three reports, which was written in the fall of 2023 in the wake of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, provided a sorrowful conclusion.
“A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible,” the 2023 report said.
The report stated that the Western planners of the Ukrainian counter-offensive underestimated their Russian rivals.
“Planners thought that once the Russian defense lines were breached, the entire front would collapse,” the fall 2023 report said.
However, according to Marianne, the planners supposedly failed to account for the will of the Russian soldiers to hold onto the terrain.
Marianne also claimed the reports spoke of a lack of Ukrainian training, and how this contributed to an ineffective offensive. The report found that soldiers who had only received three weeks of training were launched into a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.
Importantly, the report also claims the Ukrainians cannot compete with the Russians in terms of manpower.
“The Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces… capable of challenging their Russian counterparts,” the 2023 report said.
In a similar tone to the first report, the second report describes the war’s outlook for 2024.
Marianne reports that the manpower and equipment situation is favorable for the Russians.
“Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he’s not recruiting half that,” the 2024 report said.
The report adds that Ukraine had lost much of its equipment in the prior offensive, concluding that no new Ukrainian offensive could be conducted in 2024.
The third report states that the risk of Russian breakthroughs is real. The report notes that the Russians have been surprisingly effective in conducting offensive operations and that Ukraine is not capable of locally restoring a sector of the front that collapses.
These leaked French military intelligence reports bring context to the discussion concerning Ukraine. French President Macron had previously refused to rule out the possibility of French troops in Ukraine.
“To have peace in Ukraine, you must not be weak,” Macron said in a recent interview with Le Parisien.
Before this, Macron and other leaders in NATO considered the idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine. These remarks led to a response from Russian President Vladamir Putin, who threatened NATO if the leaders sent troops to Ukraine.
“They should understand that what they are doing now… it does risk a conflict with nuclear weapons,” Putin said in response to Macron’s remarks.
This exchange can be explained by the state of the Ukraine war as outlined by the reports. The combination of a possible sense of security on the Russian side and the need for manpower for the Ukrainians may have motivated Macron to speak about sending troops.
Despite these heavy-handed remarks, Putin recently said in an interview with journalist Dmitry Kiselev that he was open to negotiations based on realities that have developed.
It is clear following the French reports that the “realities” mentioned by Putin are about the positive position of Russian military forces in Ukraine.
As President Biden continues to supply the Ukranians with military and economic assistance, it is unclear how these reports will influence American foreign policies.
“We will not walk away,” Biden said during the State of the Union address, when discussing the Ukraine war.
Assuming these reports are accurate, one thing seems clear: Ukraine is losing the war. The question we are left with is simple: what will the global West do in response?
