Much to the chagrin of our pundit class, the pre-election anxiety and unrest didn’t just disappear into thin air with Joe Biden’s victory. This COVID-19 crisis is real. Cases are spiking, people are hurting and thus far our institutions have failed miserably at protecting our lives.
Our political landscape is now as volatile as it has ever been. President- elect Biden is walking into a once in a century crisis. With his political record of trampling the disenfranchised and selling out the working class, the American people are rightfully skeptical and insecure.
Many Americans now wonder whether we have avoided a bullet to the head only so we can gently slit our wrists in the bathtub.
Due to a lackluster electoral performance and pitiful party leadership, Biden will enter the White House confronted with a conservative Supreme Court and a Republican Senate.
Even if Biden suddenly got the itch to become the second coming of Franklin D. Roosevelt, he would be strongly opposed by a Republican party that seems to outwit and out-muscle the Democrats at every turn.
The next four years are going to be some of the most pivotal in the history of the country. Biden’s term will be a legacy defining one.
It is impossible to predict where we will be by the end of his term. Though, there are plenty of indicators now to which way the political landscape is going to evolve.
Here are some key things to expect for the 2024 presidential election.
Biden will be a one-termer
President Biden will not seek reelection in 2024. The oldest president elect in history will be 78 years old by the time he is sworn in and he will not hold the office for more than four years. Due to health, due to the fatigue of the office and due to the way Biden sees his current role in the Democratic party.
Biden sees himself as a transition point for the new generation of Democrats to emerge. He seems more than willing to pass the baton to centrists like Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg and of course his running mate, Kamala Harris.
General speaking, age and health are a big concern for voters. The Democrats understand the risk of running someone in their eighties. Expect Biden to bow out after one term.
Donald Trump strikes back
The Donald is handling defeat about as well as his supporter Mike Tyson was handling defeat when he bit Evander Holyfield’s ear off. His carelessness and classlessness in the days following the official election results have been as bad or worse than any of the pitiful antics he has taken part in during his presidency.
Trump loves the limelight and he hates losing. His supporters have a cult like devotion to him, and he knows it. Expect a member of the Trump family to make their bid for the 2024 Republican nomination. If it isn’t Trump himself, it will likely be his son Donald Jr. or even his beloved daughter Ivanka. Regardless, it’s safe to say Trump is far from done with U.S. politics.
Further fracturing of the Democratic party
The Democrats underperformed in this election. There’s no other way to spin it. Despite having a horrific incumbent president and criminally negligent Republican senate to run against — the Dems still lost seats in the house, failed to retake the senate and their chosen candidate Biden underperformed with key segments of their base in the presidential contest.
In the aftermath of the election there’s plenty of finger pointing going on as the party tries to justify these results to their voters and donors. Centrists and their Republican allies have piled on the progressive wing of the party. Progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have struck back, pointing out that every single candidate who embraced progressive policies like universal healthcare won reelection.
Amid all the posturing and bickering, it is clear that there will be a continued power struggle among the Democrats. The battle between grassroots candidates with strong ties to their communities like Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar and the party-manufactured liberal social media superstars like Buttigieg rages on.
The outcome of the struggle will shape the country going forward. Expect more intense battles between the will of the old guard of the party and progressive faces over the next four years.
Progressives make play for the presidency
In 2020, democratic socialist Bernie Sanders came within a hair of the candidacy and likely the presidency. It took a seemingly unprecedented power play from Democratic party insiders and former President Barack Obama to disrupt democracy and stifle Sanders’ ascension to the highest office in the land.
These facts are well known to Sanders’ progressive base. The man ignited a movement that is unlikely to dissipate in the way that prior grassroots efforts have, as leftist policy positions like universal healthcare, free college, student debt relief and the Green New Deal are gaining momentum nationally.
Progressives are no longer satisfied with symbolic victories, they increasingly represent the will of the American people and will fight for a real seat at the table over the next four years. Expect a serious progressive challenge for the Democratic nomination during the 2024 election cycle.
Michelle Obama seeks office
Former First Lady and winner of multiple “most admired woman” awards Michelle Obama will reenter the world of politics in the next four years. Whether it be a bid for the presidency or a senate run, expect her to make big waves in the political landscape.
I mean, what could be a better face for neo-liberalism than one with the kind eyes and brilliant smile of Obama? She’s got a strong following among women voters and could very well be the last chance Democrats have of stopping a progressive overhaul of the party.
Expect Obama to leave the world of corporate speaking gigs and arena book tours to seek office by 2024. There’s simply too much at risk for the Democratic party establishment to keep Obama sitting on the sidelines.